A shock election result in France puts the left in the lead

In a result that took France wholly by surprise, the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP), dominated by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, looks poised to become the biggest bloc in parliament after final-round voting at legislative elections closed on July 7th. Projections by Ipsos, based on early results, gave the NFP 171-187 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly. This would still be far short of the 289 seats needed to control the lower house. Voters have returned a badly hung parliament, and France is now set for a period of uncertainty and political manoeuvring as the country tries to learn how to act as many other European countries already do, and forge a majority coalition.

The results contained surprises all round. Marine Le Pen’s hard-right National Rally and friends, which polls had suggested would top voting, is on course to become only the third-biggest parliamentary bloc. Ipsos suggested that they would secure 134-152 seats. This represents a big jump from the 88 the RN held in the outgoing parliament, and shows how far it has travelled from its days as a fringe pariah outfit to a near-respectable party backed by a big chunk of French voters. But it will be a disappointment to Ms Le Pen, who wanted a majority, and Jordan Bardella, her 28-year-old protégé, who had hoped to become the next prime minister.

For President Emmanuel Macron, who called this election against the advice of his close allies, the result will come as something of a relief. Ipsos projections suggest that Ensemble, his centrist coalition, will hold on to 152-163 seats, down from the 250 it held in the outgoing parliament. Though painful, this is not quite the calamity that had been widely expected. His bloc looks likely to become the second-biggest,