A Fake Narrative Could Drive a Real Government Shutdown

Good evening! Tonight, we’re turning our attention to Capitol Hill, where the makings of a pre-election government shutdown may be brewing. Our chief Washington correspondent, Carl Hulse, is here to explain. Then we’ll spend a moment with an unusual photo by Doug Mills. — Jess Bidgood

Republicans across the country have spent months pushing the unsubstantiated idea that a swarm of undocumented immigrants is poised to vote illegally and swing the upcoming election to Democrats.

It’s a false narrative, aimed at scoring political points with Republicans’ hard-right base, but it could still create real chaos on Capitol Hill in the run-up to the election.

House Republicans are hoping to weaponize the idea in their fight with Democrats over funding the government by a Sept. 30 deadline.

Whether the maneuver will give those Republicans the political leverage they are seeking — and how far they are willing to go to try to gain it — is an open question. It may take a government shutdown to find out.

There are plenty of precedents for the coming shutdown showdown, which usually go something like this: Republicans and Democrats reach a stalemate over spending and run out of time for a deal. Republicans demand concessions on a politically charged issue — in this case, addressing illegal voting by immigrants — as the price of agreeing to any more federal funding, gambling that Democrats will fear a voter backlash if they refuse. Democrats balk, gambling that the G.O.P. will shoulder the blame for forcing an unpopular shutdown.

That’s how things played out in 2018, when Senate Democrats rushed to resolve an immigration-related shutdown fight they worried would hurt them politically.