Why B.C. election could serve as a ‘trial run’ for next federal campaign

The B.C. election is officially underway, and the results will have implications for politics in Ottawa regardless of who wins, political analysts say.

The B.C. NDP government is running a tight race for re-election against the surging Conservative Party of B.C., which has become its chief rival after the official Opposition BC United — formerly the BC Liberals — suspended their campaign amid sagging poll numbers.

Analysts say the B.C. Conservatives have tapped into the same desire for change that has fuelled the rise of Pierre Poilievre and the federal Conservatives. Although the provincial Tories are not enjoying a similar double-digit polling lead, the possibility of a Conservative government in B.C. — which hasn’t happened in nearly 100 years — may spell further trouble for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and solidify Poilievre’s potential for a blue wave.

“You could think of it as a trial run for the federal election to come,” said Stewart Prest, a political science lecturer at the University of British Columbia.

“I think all federal parties will be watching the provincial election quite closely to see what arguments work with voters at this moment in time, because in many ways, B.C. is a microcosm for the country as a whole.”

The issues driving the B.C. election are much the same as those expected to drive the next federal campaign, including housing affordability, economic concerns and crime.

The average price for a home in B.C. is the highest of any province or territory, at $939,792, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. In Vancouver, the rental vacancy rate is less than one per cent, the latest Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation report found, and supply only grew by 2.7 per cent.

Efforts to curb the