These three states will essentially decide the 2024 presidential election

The 2024 US presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump looks set to be an extremely close contest, with the next occupant of the White House all but certain to be chosen by a few thousand swing voters in key battleground states.

The conventional wisdom asserts that there are seven all-important swing states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia — and that Harris can emerge victorious on November 5 if she wins at least the first three to the north.

But, drilling down even further, there’s a case to be made that just three of the seven battlegrounds will actually decide the outcome: Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia.

As Politico columnist Jonathan Martin argues, Harris, the vice president and Democratic presidential nominee, must win Pennsylvania and its 19 Electoral College votes if she is to clear her path to 270, but, should she fail, she could still take the Oval Office if she can secure either North Carolina or Georgia (worth 16 EC votes each) in its stead — provided, that is, that she still takes Michigan and Wisconsin (15 and 10 respectively).

“It comes down to seven battleground states, you got to win four of them in order to carry it,” Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley told the magazine.

“Except if you win Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, then that’s going to get you over the hump.”

The good news for Harris is that she is currently a cool six points ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania in the latest Quinnipiac University poll, with 51 percent of the vote to 45 percent, and is in front by four points, three points and one point in new surveys fromThe New York Times, Franklin & Marshall and The Washington Post respectively

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