How the Robinson Report Could Affect the Presidential Race in North Carolina

The newly unearthed remarks that CNN says Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson of North Carolina made on a pornographic messaging forum years ago are certain to amplify Republican fears that his bid for governor there could be a drag on the party’s presidential prospects in a crucial state.

Since the earliest days of his campaign for governor, Mr. Robinson’s campaign has had to deflect a wave of headlines about his past comments on abortion, homosexuality and the separation of church and state. Now, with CNN reporting that he once defended slavery and called himself a “Black Nazi,” a growing number of North Carolina Republicans have grown quietly despondent.

Even before the report emerged on Thursday, the state’s Republicans were increasingly concerned about their chances of retaking the governor’s mansion, with Mr. Robinson trailing his Democratic rival, Josh Stein, the state’s attorney general, by more than a dozen percentage points in some polls.

And while a Democratic presidential candidate has not won North Carolina since 2008, when Barack Obama became the first in his party in more than three decades to do so, Democrats are feeling hopeful. A flailing Mr. Robinson, combined with the fact that Vice President Kamala Harris has drawn more support among key portions of the Democratic base there than President Biden had been able to, could create an opening for them to reverse their fortunes in a state that has broken their hearts over several election cycles.

North Carolina’s demographics have also changed considerably in the last 16 years as an influx of young people and people of color have moved to the state. A better-funded party operation in key corners of the state has also helped galvanize more Democratic voters.

Ms. Harris’s