Fox News Poll: Harris tops Trump by two points

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Vice President Kamala Harris edges former President Trump in a head-to-head matchup, as more voters see Harris as the candidate who will help the middle class, and Hispanics and independents swing in her direction.

The new Fox News national survey finds a 3 percentage-point shift among registered voters in the 2024 presidential contest since mid-August. Trump had a 1-point advantage last month, while Harris is ahead by 2 points today: 50%-48%. For reference, in July, Trump was ahead by 1 point over President Biden. Each of those differences falls within the margin of error.

This marks the first time Harris has hit 50% support, and the trial ballot result is identical among both registered and likely voters. That’s unsurprising given most Americans who are willing to spend time answering a political survey are also probably going to vote.

Of course, presidential elections are decided by electoral votes from the states, not national vote totals. Hillary Clinton had a 2-point popular vote margin over Trump in 2016 but lost the Electoral College 304-227, while Biden’s 4-point popular vote win in 2020 translated to a 306-232 Electoral College victory.

Since the August survey, many events have occurred that could affect voter opinion: the Democratic National Convention was held; Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump; former Vice