Can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump? Latest poll updates

In less than 41 days, Vice President Kamala Harris will go head-to-head with Donald Trump as Americans cast their votes in the 2024 election.

Amid substantial variation in the national polls, YouGov/The Economist data shows that Harris has a wide lead among young people. However, one in six people still have not committed to voting in November.

Separate exclusive polling shows that half of voters think Harris will offer largely the same policies as Biden, which could hurt her campaign when it comes to immigration and inflation.

The candidates are preparing for an intense final stretch of the campaign, with the needle ready to swing either way. So how will Harris and Trump fare in November?

Harris has a 2.6-point lead over Trump in the latest average of national polls, collated by FiveThirtyEight. On average, Harris has been marginally ahead of Trump in national polls.

There has been substantial variation in polls from this week, with an Ipsos/Reuters poll showing a seven-point lead, while Quinnipiac University has the two candidates head to head.

A YouGov/Economist poll has Harris with a three-point lead among registered voters, at 47 per cent and Trump at 44 per cent. The poll shows a wide 25-point margin for Harris among young voters, aged 29 and under.

However, according to the same poll, the younger generations are also the least committed to voting, with 13 per cent of the 18-29-year-olds surveyed saying they will “maybe” vote, while 3 per cent will not vote or are still unsure.

This amounts to 16 per cent who are on the fence or not voting, higher than any other age group, and higher than the average of 9 per cent. Just 65 per cent of the 18 to 29-year-olds polled said they would definitely vote in November.