Can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump? Latest poll updates

In less than 43 days, Vice President Kamala Harris will go head-to-head with Donald Trump as Americans cast their votes in the 2024 election.

Harris has a 4-point lead among independent likely voters nationwide, according to a new poll, but 12 percent have still not made up their minds about either candidate.

After a post-debate flurry of favorable polling for Harris, new polls from the Sun Belt states show considerable improvement for Trump, particularly in Arizona.

The candidates are preparing for an intense final stretch of the campaign, with the needle ready to swing either way. So how will Harris and Trump fare in November?

Harris has a 2.7-point lead over Trump in the latest average of national polls, collated by FiveThirtyEight. On average, Harris has been marginally ahead of Trump in national polls.

A new nationwide Morning Consult poll, of 11,000 likely voters nationwide from September 20-22, shows Harris with a 5-point lead overall.

The tracker poll has Harris leading among the elusive independent voters, by +4 points overall; at 46 percent, to Trump’s 42 percent.

However, this margin is unchanged from the same poll in mid-August, when Harris had 42 percent of the independent vote and Trump had 38 percent (a 4-point lead).

What has changed is that the number of independent voters who are undecided, or voting for a third candidate, has dropped from 1 in 5 (20 percent) to 1 in 10 (12 percent).

It is important to note that this is 12 percent of independents who are likely to vote; meaning that once they make their choice, this is likely to swing the odds in either candidate’s favor.

Interestingly, 6 percent of independents are still planning to vote for a third-party candidate, even now that Robert F Kennedy