Can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump? Latest poll updates

In less than 43 days, Vice President Kamala Harris will go head-to-head with Donald Trump as Americans cast their votes in the 2024 election.

After a post-debate flurry of favorable polling for Harris, new polls from the Sun Belt states show considerable improvement for Trump, particularly in Arizona.

Separate swing state polls from the northern states show that Harris has etched out a strong 5+ point lead in both Pennsylvania and Michigan, while a third battleground is too close to call.

The candidates are preparing for an intense final stretch of the campaign, with the needle ready to swing either way. So how will Harris and Trump fare in November?

Harris has a 2.9-point lead over Trump in the latest average of national polls, collated by FiveThirtyEight. On average, Harris has been marginally ahead of Trump in national polls.

But despite what appears to be a slight Harris lead, Trump is leading in three Sun Belt states, according to fresh polls from The New York Times.

Trump has a 5-point lead over Harris in Arizona and a 4-point lead in Georgia, with a more modest 2-point lead in North Carolina.

This is a stark change from the same poll in August, when Harris led in both Arizona and North Carolina, within the margin error.

In Arizona in particular, the two candidates have virtually flipped their support; Trump is at 50 percent of the vote and Harris at 45 percent, while the opposite was true last month.

It is worth noting that Harris is only 2 points behind Trump in North Carolina, at 47 percent to 49 percent. Trump has won the state in both previous elections.

In Arizona — a historically Republican state that has 11 electoral college votes and flipped for Biden in 2020 — Trump’s 5-point lead may be a concern for